Build numbers

I have seen 60,000 reported.

No hard data to back that up but if you look at the engine noes recorded in the VIN pdf file on the Commando Facebook page you get a max of about 1200 built a month.

So 1968 to 1975. 8 years *12*1200 is 115,000. This would be a max so something in the 60 to 80,000 seems realistic.
 
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johnm said:
So 1968 to 1975. 8 years *12*1200 is 115,000. This would be a max so something in the 60 to 80,000 seems realistic.
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Production did increase over the years, however, it was nowhere close to 1200 per month (14,000 per year) during the early years ('68, '69 & '70) and the early production numbers include other models.
 
L.A.B. said:
Production did increase over the years, however, it was nowhere close to 1200 per month (14,000 per year) during the early years ('68, '69 & '70) and the early production numbers include other models.
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Yes I did realise that. What I was doing was trying to bring a few facts to the situation. Not just repeat what others report.

What are the facts behind the 55 to 65 k estimates? Did someone go through all the factory records that are available and make an estimate? Or alternatively go through the financial records to make an estimate of units sold. I don't know. If they did I would certainly trust that number. I also expect Andover Norton have a good idea of the number of existing bikes based on their sales.

In the absence of an estimate based on factory records you can try a statistical approach using sample data.

That VIN spreadsheet on the Facebook page is a very useful resource. By far the most complete record of bikes built I have seen.

By looking at the maximum estimate one can get from that recorded data you can take a first step to get an estimate of range. A top end P 5 or P10 estimate if you will. Working through the numbers for early years when fewer were built you could establish a P95.

A P5 means you there is only a 5 % probability the number you estimate is equal to or more than the real answer. And so forth.

There are statistical methods which would take the sample data in that VIN spreadsheet and come up with a very good estimate of the noes built. But it was a very long time ago that I could manage that.
 
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johnm said:
Yes I did realise that. What I was doing was trying to bring a few facts to the situation.
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I don't honestly think you have.
I've gone through the numbers myself (not relied on Facebook).

60 to 80,000 seems wildly optimistic. Probably 50-55,000 at best.
 
L.A.B. said:
I don't honestly think you have.
I've gone through the numbers myself (not relied on Facebook).

60 to 80,000 seems wildly optimistic. Probably 50-55,000 at best.
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Ah well then you have done the first option that I suggested in my last post. Excellent

Would have helped if you had said that.

Fact based estimates are best but it's much better to reference the source if they are to be credible.

However I would recomend you have a look at that spread sheet on the files page of the Commando Facebook page. The author has recorded thousands of lines of data for every Commando he has ever seen mentioned. I was amazed when I first saw all the information.

And I honestly think I did. If you read my post on the P90 P10 statistical approach you can see where I was coming from.

But if you have carefully gone through all the factory records then yes that is the best estimate I agree
 
I wonder how Commando build no.s compared to their opposition, say Honda 750, Trident, Bonneville, Z900 etc?
 
L.A.B. said:
I don't do Facebook for obvious reasons, and wouldn't rely on whoever's data it is.
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That's a shame. It's an amazing record. Thousands of lines of entering factory records plus numbers recorded from all over the world.
 
Alan L said:
I wonder how Commando build no.s compared to their opposition, say Honda 750, Trident, Bonneville, Z900 etc?
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Can’t say obviously and I don’t mean to derail the subject but I recall reading Honda ramped up production of the Cub for a 24 hr period and the number supposedly exceeded the lifetime production of HRD / Vincent . With that in mind which would you rather have — Cub or Shadow ? LOL
 
johnm said:
That's a shame. It's an amazing record. Thousands of lines of entering factory records plus numbers recorded from all over the world.
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There are, however, gaps in the production numbers. If you'd care to list production numbers here then I'd be glad to go through it.

According to Mike Jackson, it was around 55,000, however, AN (Joe Seifert) seems to think not that many as with all things it has been discussed before.

Total commando units made??

hi Friends, Do anybody knows how many commando's where living the Norton factory? Do anybody knows how many commando's still exsist at the moment? Cheers Yves
www.accessnorton.com www.accessnorton.com

ZFD said:
With all due respect to our previous owner Mike Jackson I have found many of his recollections far from accurate, so I doubt the 55.000 number as much as I'd doubt any other number. Anything over 50.000 is a guess, though it may well be true.
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L.A.B. said:
There are, however, gaps in the production numbers. If you'd care to list production numbers here then I'd be glad to go through it.

According to Mike Jackson, it was around 55,000, however, AN (Joe Seifert) seems to think not that many as with all things it has been discussed before.

Total commando units made??

hi Friends, Do anybody knows how many commando's where living the Norton factory? Do anybody knows how many commando's still exsist at the moment? Cheers Yves
www.accessnorton.com www.accessnorton.com
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Hi.

I'll see what I can do.

The author of the spreadsheet is Thomas Hannam. It is over 10,900 lines long with about 8000 lines for Commandos. I'd guess he has info on about 6000 Commandos. Unfortunately a lot of the earlier years do not list build dates.

There is also info on earlier bikes like P11s N15s etc.

Interestingly for me anyway he says the Sept 67 Earles Court bike no 123666 was imported to NZ by Coleman's and was used in Auckland for many years by a university professor.
 
johnm said:
The author of the spreadsheet is Thomas Hannam. It is over 10,900 lines long with about 8000 lines for Commandos. I'd guess he has info on about 6000 Commandos. Unfortunately a lot of the earlier years do not list build dates.
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Build dates aren't exactly significant. Numbers are, for instance, 200000 to 230935 750 models is a classic example of how the serial numbers jumped several thousand numbers, not once but twice. Then there's the 235xxx series.
Also a massive jump from the 15xxxx series to 2xxxxx series.

One random page of 750 dispatch records shows no entries for 12 of the 30 serial numbers!
While that may or may not be typical it casts doubt on the actual production numbers if many serial numbers weren't used.
 
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L.A.B. said:
Build dates aren't exactly significant. Numbers are, for instance, 200000 to 230935 750 models is a classic example of how the serial numbers jumped several thousand numbers, not once but twice. Then there's the 235xxx series.
Also a massive jump from the 15xxxx series to 2xxxxx series.

One random page of 750 dispatch records shows no entries for 12 of the 30 serial numbers!
While that may or may not be typical it casts doubt on the actual production numbers if many serial numbers weren't used.
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Hi

I have sent you a PM. I only have a little notebook computer these days and attempting to work with 10,000 lines of spreadsheet is a bit of a monster.

The last reliable 15**** no listed is 154782 in the USA although a guy in Oz claims he has 159485 but also says its March 1970 ID plate which doesn't make sense.

The first 200*** bikes are 200004 to 200114. All Interpols

No 22196x is listed but the list then jumps to 230033.
 
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I doubt the management knew what was going on on the shop floor most of the time.

Lets not forget the Mk2A's built September to December 1973 as per owners here only to be told the internet says there were no (Mk2) Mk2A's until 1974 so they must have backdated data plates stamped in 1974.
Only the people on the floor would know and there seems to be none of them. (online)

As posted before, I was more than surprised by the Triumph records right down day to the day in 1957 when my TR6 engine was built.
NVT it seems was hit and miss at best, there might have been bikes going out the back door not noticed. (..........12 of the 30 serial numbers!)
 
johnm said:
I have sent you a PM.
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Thanks. Reply sent.

johnm said:
The last reliable 15**** no listed is 154782 in the USA
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Yes, so there's a huge gap in the serial numbers to the 2 series but that's a fairly obvious one.

johnm said:
No 22196x is listed but the list then jumps to 230033.
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Yes, also a jump from 21???? to 220000. No 234 series as far as I'm aware but 500+ 235 series.

850 Mk1-Mk2A serial numbers appear consistent from 300000 to 32???? except for any serial numbers either unused or not recorded.

Time Warp said:
Lets not forget the Mk2A's built September to December 1973 as per owners here only to be told the internet says there were no (Mk2) Mk2A's until 1974 so they must have backdated data plates stamped in 1974.
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Date codes have been found to be unreliable and model release dates mistaken for build dates but this is more to do with 850 numbers at least consistent up to the end of Mk2A production where there seems to have been a jump to Mk3 325001.
 
Mind you, might be relevant to any 'guesstimate' that there was industrial unrest towards the end of Commando production which could/would/might throw any averages out the window??
 
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