What is the most accurate weather service for the UK?

what bike have you hired? and do keep us up to date with your travels.

"thundery showers" probably means a short (maybe heavy) downpour and some lightning & thunder, then blue sky and sunshine. Nothing as dramatic as the storms that you may have in the US.

I have the Lightning tracker app on my phone, it's OK. Might give you an idea of what you could be riding into, but it's really just for amusement.

The 'rain alarm' app is more useful, and is reasonably accurate.
 
Fast Eddie said:
14-21 days ?!

I’d just like them to get the next 24 hrs close enough to be meaningful !!
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From https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy1epz58pyo.amp

“Liz Bentley, a professor of meteorology at Reading University and chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, says that a one-day forecast is correct over 90% of the time.”

While I seem to recall a certain scepticism from you regarding the Beeb, there’s lots of similar references on the net.
The UK is a relatively small area sitting at the conjunction of several weather systems, making life interesting for forecasters. Denmark, being even smaller also has this problem:-)
 
SteveBorland said:
From https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy1epz58pyo.amp

“Liz Bentley, a professor of meteorology at Reading University and chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, says that a one-day forecast is correct over 90% of the time.”

While I seem to recall a certain scepticism from you regarding the Beeb, there’s lots of similar references on the net.
The UK is a relatively small area sitting at the conjunction of several weather systems, making life interesting for forecasters. Denmark, being even smaller also has this problem:-)
Click to expand...
Oh, that’s alright then. If Professor Liz says so then it must be right.

If Professor Liz says it’s dry then obviously I’m wrong in thinking that I’m getting wet when riding along in the rain when it’s supposed to be dry.

Actually, that’s an amazing article, and SO Beeb !

The headline is: “Why weather forecasters often appear to get it wrong”

Note the word APPEAR ! Inserted into that sentence to say that they were NOT really wrong… it just APPEARED that way!

And the “there are still gaps in public trust” ! Not that the public is being let down… it’s the public who lack trust !

In my opinion one of the issues is that they try too hard to be too (impossibly) precise. But whatever the reasons, and however you look at it, they are wrong SO often it just ain’t funny.

Try this little exercise: take a screen shot of the 10 day overview on your phone. Do this every day for 10 days. Then look at the pictures you’ve taken and just look at how often it changes for any given day.

You can do the same exercise for a day, take a screenshot of today’s forecast several times throughout the day and see just how much it changes.

This is not a joke: there are 4 of us who ride fairly frequently together, two young uns (I’m one) and 2 old boys. The young uns always check the weather in order to decide go / no-go, or what to wear, etc. the Old boys NEVER check, they just press on with their plans regardless. The amount of times us young’s uns get it wrong is amazing, the Old boys have a far better overall outcome.
 
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The UK Met Office is a national joke as is the BBC. You first have to define what accurate is which is missing from the BBC puff piece
 
Picked up bike today in Woking. It was supposed to be a BMW with a low seat. When I arrived, they pointed me at a bike that was supposed to be my bike. It was big, heavy and too tall for me to even push off the side stand. I noticed a Triumph Speed Twin in a corner and went and sat on it. Great ergonomic fit, light weight, could get both heels down. I commenced negotiations. Rental company at first told me that bike had been promised to someone else. They then realized that I had paid in full and that Someone Else hadn't paid at all. I rode off on the Triumph.

Spent a lot of today getting lost and a little bit getting rained on. Went to Andover Norton - they are shipping to US. Took photos of pretty bikes. Ended up in Bath, which is not where I initially wanted to go, but I didn't understand one road sign. It's on the way to Wales and the scenery on the way was interesting
 
Nortonmargie on a Triumph !!

Whatever next ??

It’s very annoying when you take the time and effort to specify in advance like that… only to be completely ignored !!

Still, I reckon you probably ended up with the ideal steed there Margie.

Enjoy.
 
Fast Eddie said:
Oh, that’s alright then. If Professor Liz says so then it must be right.

If Professor Liz says it’s dry then obviously I’m wrong in thinking that I’m getting wet when riding along in the rain when it’s supposed to be dry.

Actually, that’s an amazing article, and SO Beeb !

The headline is: “Why weather forecasters often appear to get it wrong”

Note the word APPEAR ! Inserted into that sentence to say that they were NOT really wrong… it just APPEARED that way!

And the “there are still gaps in public trust” ! Not that the public is being let down… it’s the public who lack trust !

In my opinion one of the issues is that they try too hard to be too (impossibly) precise. But whatever the reasons, and however you look at it, they are wrong SO often it just ain’t funny.

Try this little exercise: take a screen shot of the 10 day overview on your phone. Do this every day for 10 days. Then look at the pictures you’ve taken and just look at how often it changes for any given day.

You can do the same exercise for a day, take a screenshot of today’s forecast several times throughout the day and see just how much it changes.
Click to expand...
Fast Eddie said:
This is not a joke: there are 4 of us who ride fairly frequently together, two young uns (I’m one) and 2 old boys. The young uns always check the weather in order to decide go / no-go, or what to wear, etc. the Old boys NEVER check, they just press on with their plans regardless. The amount of times us young’s uns get it wrong is amazing, the Old boys have a far better overall outcome.
Click to expand...

Fast Eddie said:
Oh, that’s alright then. If Professor Liz says so then it must be right.

If Professor Liz says it’s dry then obviously I’m wrong in thinking that I’m getting wet when riding along in the rain when it’s supposed to be dry.

Actually, that’s an amazing article, and SO Beeb !

The headline is: “Why weather forecasters often appear to get it wrong”

Note the word APPEAR ! Inserted into that sentence to say that they were NOT really wrong… it just APPEARED that way!

And the “there are still gaps in public trust” ! Not that the public is being let down… it’s the public who lack trust !

In my opinion one of the issues is that they try too hard to be too (impossibly) precise. But whatever the reasons, and however you look at it, they are wrong SO often it just ain’t funny.

Try this little exercise: take a screen shot of the 10 day overview on your phone. Do this every day for 10 days. Then look at the pictures you’ve taken and just look at how often it changes for any given day.

You can do the same exercise for a day, take a screenshot of today’s forecast several times throughout the day and see just how much it changes.

This is not a joke: there are 4 of us who ride fairly frequently together, two young uns (I’m one) and 2 old boys. The young uns always check the weather in order to decide go / no-go, or what to wear, etc. the Old boys NEVER check, they just press on with their plans regardless. The amount of times us young’s uns get it wrong is amazing, the Old boys have a far better overall outcome.
Click to expand...
This does rather seem to be a case of observer bias - both for the Beeb and the weather apps!

The very nature of chaotic systems means that the results will change constantly. Small differences in the input result in large changes in the output. Look at several different weather services and if they are using different algorithms and data, the results will differ. Part of the difficulty of weather forecasting is precisely this, which of the results is most probable. My experience has generally been positive, it does depend on one's expectations though.

I learned to use weather forecasts when I was sailing, even back in the 80's the daily forcast was surprisingly accurate. We were not really concerned about whether it was going to drizzle or be dry, more concerned about wind speed and direction.
To decide what gear to use for today's ride, it's better to use the radar pictures to get a more precise idea of the conditions in an hour or two.
 
SteveBorland said:
This does rather seem to be a case of observer bias - both for the Beeb and the weather apps!

The very nature of chaotic systems means that the results will change constantly. Small differences in the input result in large changes in the output. Look at several different weather services and if they are using different algorithms and data, the results will differ. Part of the difficulty of weather forecasting is precisely this, which of the results is most probable. My experience has generally been positive, it does depend on one's expectations though.

I learned to use weather forecasts when I was sailing, even back in the 80's the daily forcast was surprisingly accurate. We were not really concerned about whether it was going to drizzle or be dry, more concerned about wind speed and direction.
To decide what gear to use for today's ride, it's better to use the radar pictures to get a more precise idea of the conditions in an hour or two.
Click to expand...
Remember, I never claimed it was easy for ‘em… just that they are not reliably accurate.

Which I think we agree on.
 
Predicting the weather is like winning the lotto, mother nature rules and she can change her mind at an instance and without warning, these humans have had it too good I might just piss on them just to upset their day and I might just throw in a bit of a blow as well, ooooh I can be a bitch sometimes.
I am old school if it looks like a nice morning I take the bike out and enjoy my ride, if it rains on me so what I am still out on the bike and most of the time only get caught in a light shower or 2 and if the rain gets a bit harder I just stop and have a coffee or some lunch and wait till it passes, if it still keeps going and can't see it stopping I just turn around and head home, might get a bit wet but still on the bike and thinking of a nice hot shower when I do get home.
Where did that rain come from as it wasn't predicted, mother nature is just messing with me, but hey I am still out on the bike and I just ride to the conditions, but seems every time I have my rain gear in my bag it never rains when out, leave the rain gear at home and of course I am going to get caught out, but hey I am still out on the bike and hopefully it's just passing over and the rest of the ride will be a great day out, when the day starts off overcast and signs of rain at lease it keeps the Harley boys at home, I been on some great rides when there has been a bit of rain about and when it stops, riding don't take long to dry the pants or boots them air driers work pretty good at speed.
 
Got the bike back to the rental agency today. (Flying back tomorrow so I can pay for it all!) Weather forecast was for "thundery showers" @ 1 PM. I got on the road in Cirencester 7:45 to make the 75 miles back to Woking. Mother Nature waited until I was on the M4 before letting loose. I rode about 20 miles barely able to see. Argh. HOWEVER, my riding suit is proved waterproof and my boots barely leaked! Rental agency found me a cup of coffee, a heater and called a cab for me when my phone stopped working (I went to a shop in Woking, its working again. )
 
Hope you enjoyed your tour of Wales (despite the weather) and got to visit some of the beautiful and historic places as well as ride some great roads.
 
I did enjoy my visit to Wales! Yesterday was my only really miserable day. The roads are really nice, and so are the people. Come to the US and you will see how much better the roads are in the UK. UK roads are narrow, but the paving is excellent.
 
I guess it depends upon where you live or are riding. Road surface here is less than optimal and narrow, of course, is a given. My location, oh, note the avatar.
How did you make out with the speed cams and the idiotic 20mph now posted all over the place?
 
Speed cams and speed limits not a problem. My town has much wider streets than most English villages and a 25 mph speed limit. I was in the UK to enjoy the scenery, not to improve lap times. Plus there were plenty of places where traffic was moving at 65 mph
 
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