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gortnipper · Mar 21, 2020

marshg246 said:
I've heard that, but the numbers don't indicate it to me.

282K Covid-19 cases verses at least 38000K flu cases. Yes, the flu estimate is for a period 2 months longer. If exponentially figured 800K-1000K corona cases if it started in Oct 2019.

I assume the media reporting the communicability got there number from somewhere but was it authoritative and in context? I've searched quite a bit and can find no source for that statement. I would really like to read what it came from!

I got it here, and the article has been updated with new information.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html?0p19G=2870

Up to minute data here
https://ncov2019.live/#Global

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/17/avi_schiffmann_coronavirus_tracker

marshg246 · Mar 21, 2020

gortnipper said:
I got it here, and the article has been updated with new information.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html?0p19G=2870

Up to minute data here
https://ncov2019.live/#Global

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/17/avi_schiffmann_coronavirus_tracker

I see. They reference the 28 Feb article here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 which actually says that at that time they estimated that each person infected 2.2 other people. Flu is estimated to infect 1.3 other people. For corona to be twice as communicable each person would have to infect 2.6 other people - again media making news from numbers they don't understand.

Please don't get me wrong - this is bad - especially for us old people. I may be jaded because in the Washington DC area, if it's not sensational, it's not news so I don't trust a lot of what I hear on the news.

Thanks for the 2nd link - it's much more informative that the one I've been watching.

Craig · Mar 21, 2020

Today in Italy 700 real people died from the virus .... that a big number for one day ... the peak here is predicted to be in 4-8 wks right now in a population of just under 1 million , we have 15 cases one person in hospital .... not sure what future holds ...

jbruney · Mar 22, 2020

Better at your own hands than by the leave of others. I say bow to none and walk your own path.

DogT · Mar 22, 2020

News media is not making this stuff up, the numbers are real and going to get substantially worse. I saw my GP the other day and he was really worried about it. Imagine all the hourly workers out of work, who's going to buy their food, get the health care they can't afford? We're in for a disaster, I wish it weren't so, but too many people have their head in the sand on this one including the Senate. We aren't ready for it, and also weren't ready for it. Lack of preparation and cutting things too close to the bone.

Don't worry, we can BS our way through it.

jbruney · Mar 22, 2020

The media should hang from street lamps followed by our bickering politicians. A long time coming, but cry 'wolf' enough times and you'll get the global catastrophe you've been begging for. I'm also pretty much for giving the ropes to scalpers, hoarders, and those that would judge who should receive treatment and who should not. You can believe everyone in gov. shall exempt themselves from being denied treatment for age or preexisting ailments.
Sorry to rant. You've all heard their 'sensible' statements voiced early on though as they were thinking aloud of difficult choices.

marshg246 · Mar 22, 2020

jbruney said:
The media should hang from street lamps followed by our bickering politicians. A long time coming, but cry 'wolf' enough times and you'll get the global catastrophe you've been begging for. I'm also pretty much for giving the ropes to scalpers, hoarders, and those that would judge who should receive treatment and who should not. You can believe everyone in gov. shall exempt themselves from being denied treatment for age or preexisting ailments.
Sorry to rant. You've all heard their 'sensible' statements voiced early on though as they were thinking aloud of difficult choices.

That's too third-world, but I know some good oak trees. One is next to the church at the end of the Gallows Road in Annandale, VA

Onder · Mar 22, 2020

It will be interesting to see where we are in two weeks, a month , 3 months.
Probably a lot more effective to wait and see rather than prognosticate and suppose.
...I have to go wash my hands.

Fast Eddie · Mar 22, 2020

There’s no doubt this thing is bad. But we do need to question some of the stats.

We simply cannot calculate the mortality rate when we have NO IDEA of the actual infection rate. Death vs CONFIRMED cases means nothing. In the U.K. when we were at 2,000 confirmed cases they were estimating there were probably over 100,000 cases in total. That makes a rather large difference to the mortality rate calculation.

Another flaw is the death count. EVERYONE who dies, who has the virus, is counted as being killed by the virus, but this is just not true. Did you know that on average 1,600 people die in the U.K. every day? Now, seeing as the vast majority of covid19 deaths are elderly people with underlying health issues, many of them are clearly from the same ‘cluster’ that make up the 1,600 per day normal death rate.

Bottom line gents is that the stats that are being floated around at present really are meaningless.

If they are driving policy, that’s worrying.

Jerry Doe · Mar 22, 2020

Since we are way off topic, this thread has been moved to the pub

jbruney · Mar 22, 2020

One way they ban oak trees the other we walk in the dark because street lamps are removed.... Sorry Jerry.... my mind wanders in my old age.

I feel better and more focused after my ride a few minutes ago.

oldmikew · Mar 22, 2020

jbruney said:
. I say bow to none and walk your own path.

Yes

oldmikew · Mar 22, 2020

Fast Eddie said:
There’s no doubt this thing is bad. But we do need to question some of the stats.

We simply cannot calculate the mortality rate when we have NO IDEA of the actual infection rate. Death vs CONFIRMED cases means nothing. In the U.K. when we were at 2,000 confirmed cases they were estimating there were probably over 100,000 cases in total. That makes a rather large difference to the mortality rate calculation.

Another flaw is the death count. EVERYONE who dies, who has the virus, is counted as being killed by the virus, but this is just not true. Did you know that on average 1,600 people die in the U.K. every day? Now, seeing as the vast majority of covid19 deaths are elderly people with underlying health issues, many of them are clearly from the same ‘cluster’ that make up the 1,600 per day normal death rate.

Bottom line gents is that the stats that are being floated around at present really are meaningless.

If they are driving policy, that’s worrying.

Nigel,

The vast majority of covid 19 deaths are people with underlying health issues and compromised immune systems . True , some of this cohort are oldies but not all by any means.

There is a danger that oldies who neither have covid 19 nor pose any transmission risk are going to finish up under virtual house arrest as has happened to Ken in California.

Craig · Mar 23, 2020

Nigel , not sure your quibble on what exactly a victim died from is valid , if they test positive for the virus and die .... they are just as dead , even if an underlying health issue was final cause , assuming issue was being managed before the virus .... that is

EstuaryBoy · Mar 23, 2020

Wasn't the saying: 'There's lies, damned lies... and statistics' ??
Though given the nature of the current problem, to err on the side of caution may not be a bad thing..

Hortons Norton · Mar 23, 2020

I see Spain purchased 640,000 test kits from China, looks like they are getting hit hard.

EstuaryBoy · Mar 23, 2020

Hortons Norton said:
I see Spain purchased 640,000 test kits from China, looks like they are getting hit hard.

I wonder if China offered them a discount?

Hortons Norton · Mar 23, 2020

Good question, but why don't we do the same? I also read people need to ready for bad news here in the states this week, not sure what that means. I thought that's all we've been hearing? Maybe they can finally start testing more people now? Time for us to run to the store, I'll report back. Stay safe all.

jbruney · Mar 23, 2020

When all is said and done I do pray that all of you and yours come through these times in good order.

Fast Eddie · Mar 23, 2020

Craig said:
Nigel , not sure your quibble on what exactly a victim died from is valid , if they test positive for the virus and die .... they are just as dead , even if an underlying health issue was final cause , assuming issue was being managed before the virus .... that is

I’m not saying it’s any less bad for the dead, or families of. As you say, dead is dead.

My point is only that the ‘mortality rate’ percentage is currently being bumped up, perhaps by a lot, due to only counting confirmed cases as the ‘total infected’ and counting all who die (some of which would have died anyway). Bumping one figure down and the other figure up gives a false ratio.

If the real ‘caused by covid19’ death number was measured against the ‘total infected’ number, I strongly believe the mortality rate would not be much higher than the normal flu figure.

That’s not to say there’s nothing to worry about of course. The real worry is the capacity to cope with those requiring hospitalisation. That is why all countries are so focused on ‘flattening the peak’.

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