Post tariff world

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marshg246 said:
True but not true! The majority of my investments today were made for the dividends they pay. When the market goes to hell so do dividends. Also the additional investments I've made over the last 5 years are there in shares that are not lost but had I put that money put in an instrument that cannot lose money and pays interest those additional investments would have increased in value, not lost. I would have a LOT more money today if I put those additional investments in a mattress!

Normally, "dollar cost averaging" saves the day but that has not worked out for a long time.
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As at today's close, the S&P500 has lost 4.27% in the last 12 months and gained 78.61% over the last 5 years. It's just volatility. We have a crisis every 4 or 5 years: global banking crisis, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine...
 
Lineslinger said:
Lumber in the 80's. Public land harvested/subsidized lumber. Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs.

Something else.

The real point of the US tariff on Canadian products is to close the porous northern border. A now honest attempt to slow the continual smuggling and transport of drugs/fentanyl as well as the human trafficking and illegal aliens crossing from Canada into the US.
Lots of very recent Canadian activity and countermeasures in response to US implemented tariffs.
Border security increases, drugs illegal alien crossing decreases, tariff application decreases.
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worntorn said:
No tariff on sport fishing....so far :)
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Ha. Penguins have gathered
worntorn said:
No tariff on sport fishing....so far :)
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Ha. Penguins take note
 
Mart UK said:
As at today's close, the S&P500 has lost 4.27% in the last 12 months and gained 78.61% over the last 5 years. It's just volatility. We have a crisis every 4 or 5 years: global banking crisis, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine...
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True but not true. Each of the indexes changes makeup over time so looking at the overall gain/loss of the index tells you very little other than an indication of the market.

Also, lots of ways to look at it: https://tradethatswing.com/average-...relevant regardless of the exact day invested.

 
Mike40M said:
About lumber. Trees in north grows slower and is stronger. So more useful for buildings. Higher volume south more profitable as pulp and paper. A reason for cross border trade.
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In my example the distance from New Hampshires southrrn border to Canada is 200 miles, hardly enough to make a difference between US eastern white pine and Canadian eastern white pine. I have no problems with fair trade however it goes.
 
Mart UK said:
As at today's close, the S&P500 has lost 4.27% in the last 12 months and gained 78.61% over the last 5 years. It's just volatility. We have a crisis every 4 or 5 years: global banking crisis, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine..
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Percentages when describing losses and gains can be deceiving
 
MikeG said:
In my example the distance from New Hampshires southrrn border to Canada is 200 miles, hardly enough to make a difference between US eastern white pine and Canadian eastern white pine. I have no problems with fair trade however it goes.
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There are about 1000 more miles of Canada above the border.
 
NPeteN said:
There are about 1000 more miles of Canada above the border.
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I would guess closer to 4000 kms above,maybe more. Eastern White Pine aren't typically a Northern boreal species and aren't naturally occuring very far above the New Hamshire/ Canadian border.
 
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Suppose I only meant to illustrate that in general, Canadian lumber is superior regardless of species due to a colder climate.
They've got better wood to log so why waste time on crap pine? Just buy it from your neighbor.
 
BERT said:
I would guess closer to 4000 kms above,maybe more. Eastern White Pine aren't typically a Northern boreal species and aren't naturally occuring very far above the New Hamshire/ Canadian border.
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NPeteN said:
Suppose I only meant to illustrate that in general, Canadian lumber is superior regardless of species due to a colder climate.
They've got better wood to log so why waste time on crap pine? Just buy it from your neighbor.
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Not even close.


The bunny-kissers have forced the majority of US lumber & paper mills to close, meanwhile, our Canadian neighbors understand responsibly managed forests can supply all the forest products we need.
 
Some interesting points, but also a lot of mis-information.

1. The EU has recently offered the US a zero rated deal for both parties, but the US wanted an 'annual fee' to sell into the US even with zero tariffs.
2. Indian drain covers, I'm sure the state looked at what the cost of US items are and if they could actually be made in the US. I suspect they could have ben made in the US, but the cost was high in that case the residents would pay more I would assume.
3. Many of the tariffs are yet to be finalised, the confusion around steel and aluminium parts whether for automotive or any other use is to be resolved.
4. Yet, again as reported last night on a US news channel that these tariffs come into effect next week was wrong, they are being collected now.

Last night China did not sit back and the additional 50% up the hoop without a plan in place. If any American thinks that what happened last night was a good move then they are truly deluded. China has been quietly preparing for this for the past 8 years as they knew it was coming. Even if every Chinese product that the US consumes or purchases in the US was made in the US there is one real big problem that has be overcome and that is labour, there would be a labour shortage and when that happens wages rise and so do prices.

All the US is doing is isolating itself, creating a situation where smuggling will be profitable for iPhone and the like and cause many manufacturers to set up in countries like the UK with a 10% tariff that is stable and predictable. In fact the Chinese are already here using the same companies that I use who manufacture Norton parts as it is cheaper for them to make certain volumes in the UK using UK suppliers. The harm has been done, even if all the tariffs were removed today, does anyone think that business will resume as usual.
 
One thing not mentioned yet is that on services USA sells lots more to Europe. Not affecting Norton parts, but VIP membership is part of it.
Tariffs on services will hit US tech giants hard.
 
NPeteN said:
Suppose I only meant to illustrate that in general, Canadian lumber is superior regardless of species due to a colder climate.
They've got better wood to log so why waste time on crap pine? Just buy it from your neighbor.
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The green is what you need to build houses. The US actually grows more than it harvests, but the reality remains that northern growth softwood is better suited to construction owing to its inherent stability.

forests.org

Forester's Blog: So, How much forest is there in the U.S. and Canada? - forests.org

A recent Twitter post by EcoWatch stated that “A new study has found an alarming loss in forest areas.”
forests.org forests.org

MSU_Forest_map.webp
 
Madnorton said:
Some interesting points, but also a lot of mis-information.

1. The EU has recently offered the US a zero rated deal for both parties, but the US wanted an 'annual fee' to sell into the US even with zero tariffs.
2. Indian drain covers, I'm sure the state looked at what the cost of US items are and if they could actually be made in the US. I suspect they could have ben made in the US, but the cost was high in that case the residents would pay more I would assume.
3. Many of the tariffs are yet to be finalised, the confusion around steel and aluminium parts whether for automotive or any other use is to be resolved.
4. Yet, again as reported last night on a US news channel that these tariffs come into effect next week was wrong, they are being collected now.

Last night China did not sit back and the additional 50% up the hoop without a plan in place. If any American thinks that what happened last night was a good move then they are truly deluded. China has been quietly preparing for this for the past 8 years as they knew it was coming. Even if every Chinese product that the US consumes or purchases in the US was made in the US there is one real big problem that has be overcome and that is labour, there would be a labour shortage and when that happens wages rise and so do prices.

All the US is doing is isolating itself, creating a situation where smuggling will be profitable for iPhone and the like and cause many manufacturers to set up in countries like the UK with a 10% tariff that is stable and predictable. In fact the Chinese are already here using the same companies that I use who manufacture Norton parts as it is cheaper for them to make certain volumes in the UK using UK suppliers. The harm has been done, even if all the tariffs were removed today, does anyone think that business will resume as usual.
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For years I had a guy make custom NASCAR radiators for the BMW race cars I built. He made all of the radiators for the NASCAR Truck Series. I built a personal '74 BMW Sedan full race for the street and needed a radiator. He said that the aluminum market in the USA was dead and not available, only the Chinese stuff.
However, he had exactly enough of the USA aluminum to make his last radiator for me. He gave up his business completely as he refused to use the inferior Chinese aluminum as it was half of the thickness of the USA materials and inferior in other aspects. He went back to building decks......
 
74 Cafe' said:
For years I had a guy make custom NASCAR radiators for the BMW race cars I built. He made all of the radiators for the NASCAR Truck Series. I built a personal '74 BMW Sedan full race for the street and needed a radiator. He said that the aluminum market in the USA was dead and not available, only the Chinese stuff.
However, he had exactly enough of the USA aluminum to make his last radiator for me. He gave up his business completely as he refused to use the inferior Chinese aluminum as it was half of the thickness of the USA materials and inferior in other aspects. He went back to building decks......
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The US only imports a tiny amount of aluminium from China. Canada provides most of the Aluminium used in the US.
Aluminium is electricity solidified so it's not a case of just building a new plant, which would take years anyway. What's needed is inexpensive hydro power, which BC and Quebec have in abundance. That's why the Aluminium smelters are there.
Trump has also placed a Tariff of 25 % on Canadian Aluminum . That has been in place for a couple of weeks now, so prices will be rising quickly.
The US trade deficit skyrocketed in Jan/ February as companies brought in as much as possible ahead of the tariffs, so that could delay inflation for a month or so.
Trump's idea that the USA doesn't need anything from Canada is quite absurd. It's also a commonly held belief of a large number of Americans, but reality dictates.
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Mart UK said:
As at today's close, the S&P500 has lost 4.27% in the last 12 months and gained 78.61% over the last 5 years. It's just volatility. We have a crisis every 4 or 5 years: global banking crisis, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine...
Click to expand...
Correct. We are back at levels of 2 years ago.
 
NPeteN said:
Suppose I only meant to illustrate that in general, Canadian lumber is superior regardless of species due to a colder climate.
They've got better wood to log so why waste time on crap pine? Just buy it from your neighbor.
Click to expand...
Hey, the big box home stores have to sell (crap pine), too!
 
Mike40M said:
One thing not mentioned yet is that on services USA sells lots more to Europe. Not affecting Norton parts, but VIP membership is part of it.
Tariffs on services will hit US tech giants hard.
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And services are not included in trade deficits, only goods, and the US is the world leader, particularly financial and software. Why the US needs to increase manufacturing is beyond me (with some exceptions like automobiles and chips)-we just can't compete with all of the cheap overseas labor for most goods. Our service industries provide better high paying jobs.
 
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