About democracy

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During current restrictions spending too much time searching the net.
Found the US on 25th place on the democracy index list. Called a flawed democracy.
 

gortnipper

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During current restrictions spending too much time searching the net.
Found the US on 25th place on the democracy index list. Called a flawed democracy.
Sweden is doing well in that. Congratulations.
 

baz

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You don't miss this?

I hadn't realised this was happening,I do understand the sentiment behind it
But jeez look at the amount of people dying in America!!!
Just crazy
 
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I understand that with 20 millions thrown in unemployment and 800,000 confirmed cases, people are deeply worried about their economy. With about 5% risk of dying when infected, some people think it's worth the risk to gather in protests.
If you look at infected or deaths per million, the US is not very hard hit yet. Spain has about 3.5 times as many compared to the US in death rate.
 

gortnipper

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Median age in Spain and Italy is 45. Median age in US is 38.

The mortality rates for Covid-19 double from the thirties to the forties.

The mortality is 6x the thirties when you are in your 50s.

17x in your 60s.

You get the drift with this.
 

NPeteN

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Don't kid yourself. These protests are not motivated by science, fact or reason, they are orchestrated by pro-gun "organizations" and the turnout is usually quite small. Thank God.
 

DogT

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Alex Jones types. They are probably a lot of goldbugs too and they buy all those great supplements from Jones. All it takes is a con man and some snake oil. I've got relatives that feed into this crap, and they're fairly educated too. My wife has a cousin in MI that has a PHD in Psychiatry and he now believes the earth is the center of the universe. Actually, I really thing he's just trying to con people into paying and listening to his bunk, I can't believe he really believes it, but then some types of 'religion' will do that to people. It's called 'marketing'. He's one of those very conservative 'Catholics', like our illustrious 'attorney general', Barr. But this 'us' and 'them' crap has got to end, that started with Regan, right after Nixon's southern strategy.

If I'd known it was going to turn out like this, I'd have left long ago. I'm actually sorry I wasted 3 years in the US army.
 

NPeteN

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Alex Jones types. They are probably a lot of goldbugs too and they buy all those great supplements from Jones. All it takes is a con man and some snake oil.
Here he is, pedaling his wares.

 
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Alex Jones types. They are probably a lot of goldbugs too and they buy all those great supplements from Jones. All it takes is a con man and some snake oil. I've got relatives that feed into this crap, and they're fairly educated too. My wife has a cousin in MI that has a PHD in Psychiatry and he now believes the earth is the center of the universe. Actually, I really thing he's just trying to con people into paying and listening to his bunk, I can't believe he really believes it, but then some types of 'religion' will do that to people. It's called 'marketing'. He's one of those very conservative 'Catholics', like our illustrious 'attorney general', Barr. But this 'us' and 'them' crap has got to end, that started with Regan, right after Nixon's southern strategy.

If I'd known it was going to turn out like this, I'd have left long ago. I'm actually sorry I wasted 3 years in the US army.
'Religion' is about belief. Communism and fascism are also religions, and have a common source - the philosophies of Hegel and Kant. - 'The individual is subject to the state'. - In a democracy, the individual IS the state. Hegel and Kant were Prussians and probably militarist authoritarians. When you use fascism to oppose communism and vice-versa, you simply replace one form of authoritarianism with another. Democracy is a sideways shift. It is not the midpoint of an authoritarian paradigm.
One thing which Deming said, is that people should work to improve the system.
 

gortnipper

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I am not sure, but I think this is how Empires fall into a death spiral.

“You’re in a position of defending your choices no matter what information is presented,” he says, “because if you don’t, it means that you lose your membership in this group that’s become so important to you.”

In these charged situations, people often don’t engage with information as information but as a marker of identity. Information becomes tribal.

Eighty-nine percent of Democrats voted for Clinton and 88 percent of Republicans voted for Trump.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/03/this-article-wont-change-your-mind/519093/
 
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I understand that with 20 millions thrown in unemployment and 800,000 confirmed cases, people are deeply worried about their economy. With about 5% risk of dying when infected, some people think it's worth the risk to gather in protests.
If you look at infected or deaths per million, the US is not very hard hit yet. Spain has about 3.5 times as many compared to the US in death rate.
5% ??

If infected there are only two possible outcomes:
You recover, or you die :
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

From the 128 000 'closed cases', 35% are dead.
I believe 128 000 is statistically relevant.
I see no reason why this percentage should change for the 700 000 that are still waiting for an outcome.
820 000 reported cases now, but many more to come..
 
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Median age in Spain and Italy is 45. Median age in US is 38.

The mortality rates for Covid-19 double from the thirties to the forties.

The mortality is 6x the thirties when you are in your 50s.

17x in your 60s.

You get the drift with this.
Essentially, you're wrong statistically, and here's why... The CDC website in america instructs people NOT to get tested unless they have life threatening symptoms (to flatten the curve), so there's not way to know the denominator of the equation you propose in the USA in any of the math.

So, if we have 2 people infected and 1 dies. The mortality rate is 50%. If we actually have 2,000 people infected and 1 dies, the rate is .05% There's no way to do the math without having an accurate accounting of who is infected. Without completely testing everyone or extrapolating the ratio's through "random" testing, or you get no accurate statistics. In cases where you test only those people who are in medical distress, you get hugely inflated numbers on all measures of infection and severity of symptoms. I'd suggest do some reading and find out the bigger picture, rather than rattle off misleading statistics. Both the media and the governmental entities focus too much on "body count" rather than educating the public to the details of what we are faced with.

Given the fact that I live in a hotspot area, and was sick 3 weeks ago, I went to the CDC website to figure out what to do and collected some of the less publicized, yet crucial information listed below:

-It's estimated that 80% of the people who are infected have mild symptoms to almost no symptoms, and yet the virus absolutely kills some people. This diversity in the degree of illness causes those who are not ill, yet are infected to dismiss the possibility of being infectious in many cases. If it made every infected person quite ill, the human behavioral response would be better.

-An infected person can be infectious and not display any symptoms for anywhere from 4 to as long as 14 days. This is what the CDC said 3 weeks ago. This fact may have changed as research has been changing facts as it is done.

These 2 facts are the reason that the medical community knows that without an inoculation for the virus, all they can do is "flatten the curve". Meaning, slow the infection rate so they can save as many people as possible who's symptoms are life threatening. The wide symptomatic expression of this virus is part of what makes it so contagious. People are walking around who are asymptomatic, yet they are still infectious without a clue.

When I was sick, the CDC website interactive quiz told me that I may indeed have the virus, but NOT to be tested unless I have more serious symptoms because medical facilities are already overwhelmed testing, and caring for the seriously ill people who are infected. The CDC recommend that I have no contact with other people for at least 2 weeks, which I have done and am pretty much still doing.

What the CDC, Dr's Fauci and Birx don't make clear enough is there are only 2 possibilities. Either almost the entire population gets exposed to the virus, so there's herd immunity developed (which means some who have severe symptoms may die) OR, there's a vaccine developed in time before the entire population is eventually exposed. There is no working plan where "flattening the curve" keeps most of the population from being exposed. "Flattening the curve" is just to spread out the medical resources so facilities are not overwhelmed with people who all need treatment at the same time. Social distancing is NOT an attempt at containment. It's about flattening the curve.... (read above)

Some time ago, someone here was projecting at least 2 million will die from this because of the poor governmental response to the epidemic. Then the number was 200,000 dead, and more recently the numbers are under 100,000. This is because of poor statistical collection practices. Testing can give valid statistics, but not by only testing people who are in distress. (that's what the CDC is recommending here in america to "flatten the blah blah blah")

Basically, I'm sick of hearing the "Don't kid yourself" or the "You get the drift" baloney... If you ever wrote an essay for some professional journal and started your essay with the former quote and finished it with the later, you should give your diploma back to your school... Don't let the media hype you to embrace paranoia, or dismiss common sense. There is no "drift" to get, or dire warning needed if you do your own research on the CDC website.

I'm a Backcountry skier. Many Backcountry skiers die in avalanches. That's a fact of life. Snow science researchers who are experts in snowpack structure are also occasionally killed in the backcountry. The reason is because humans are fallible. Experts are wrong sometimes. I have a saying for backcountry traveling that expresses the situation of the inherent dangers of backcountry travel.

"The risk is never zero. Even when it's low risk, there's still a possibility of being caught in a triggered release. At some point if you are going to travel in the backcountry, you must accept some amount of risk."

And that's where we are with the Covid19 situation. At some point we have to go back to functional living because the risk will never be ZERO, or even near zero. That's the critical judgement that looms. When is the risk low enough to resume normal life?

It's pretty obvious, one political faction wants to accept more risk by restarting normal life because the strong economy would be a significant factor in their re-election. It's also obvious that there's a mirror opposite who hope that their narrative of accepting too much risk too quickly will cause greatly increased death rates which proves that it's their turn to run the government. Both of these seem true to me.

Then there's the idiots on both extremes who make claims that aren't worth repeating, yet some want to claim that their ideological opposite's main stream core values are extreme. It's sad that the founders of the constitution knew that the media and freedom of speech was an important check on the corruption of powerful entities within our nation. I wonder if they ever thought that the institution of free press and free speech would become a combatant rather than the impartial referee.
 
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0onortono0:

If the 130000 'closed cases' result in 46000 deaths ( 36%),
Why wouldn't the 830000 registered cases ( for now) result in aprox. 300000 deaths ?
Where am I wrong?
 
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So you're saying 36% of the people who get Covid 19 virus die?... How is that possible when the CDC says that 80% of those who get the virus have little to no symptoms at all?...
 
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So you're saying 36% of the people who get Covid 19 virus die?... How is that possible when the CDC says that 80% of those who get the virus have little to no symptoms at all?...
I am talking about the outcome of the registered cases.
64% recovered or discharged (= might still die)
36% died.
Check the website.
Only 15% of the 830000 cases (to date) had an outcome.
If none of the still active 700000+ cases died, it would be 5% dead.
Not very likely.
Please explain where/if I am wrong..
 
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Someone did their homework before posting. Yes I read it and pretty much agree.
 
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Don't know how a thread titled about democracy became mostly about the current pandemia. Probably because it's a more urgent matter to discuss. There are a number of countries where leaders try to use the situation to gain more power. Even in my country. Also corporations and governments who want to increase surveillance of peoples positions and movements.
Anyhow, present input data to statistical analysis is far from exact. With a low rate of testing, we don't know the real spread of the infection. Iceland has done a massive testing and has .5% deaths per infected. 82% of the infected declared healthy. But it's a small isolated country. Possibly next year we can say how wrong we are now. If we survive.
 
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