Sturgis 2020

Craig

Craig

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“The Vintagent” has an article on this years Sturgis, supposedly was largest gathering of humans in the World this year and has been labelled a “Covid-Superspreader” , (Aug.2/20 - Sept.2/20) Statistics Show 250,000 new cases directly linked to Sturgis , increased health care costs estimate $12.2 billion , prolly more than the “take” of the entire bike festival .... hard to understand .....
 
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Craig said:
“The Vintagent” has an article on this years Sturgis, supposedly was largest gathering of humans in the World this year and has been labelled a “Covid-Superspreader” , (Aug.2/20 - Sept.2/20) Statistics Show 250,000 new cases directly linked to Sturgis , increased health care costs estimate $12.2 billion , prolly more than the “take” of the entire bike festival .... hard to understand .....
Click to expand...
Never underestimate the stupidity of humans.
 
Given that the date of the relevant paper was September 2020, and the Sturgis event was Aug.7 thru 16, one has to wonder how the authors could have thrown this paper together in so short a time.

Then, there is this statement at the bottom of the Title Page:

"Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author." In other words, don't think this is a peer reviewed scientific paper.

Slick
 
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The Associated Press reported finding just 290 cases of coronavirus among people who attended the event nationwide.

www.cbsnews.com

Johns Hopkins researchers question controversial study linking Sturgis rally to COVID-19 spike

Public health experts cast doubt on whether August gathering of motorcycle enthusiasts led to 267,000 infections.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

slate.com

The Sturgis Biker Rally Did Not Cause 266,796 Cases of COVID-19

The huge figure immediately hit the “confirmation bias” button in many people’s brains. But hold up.
slate.com slate.com
 
Will my IQ increase if I wear a mask 24/7?

I don't go out much being retired with plenty to do around the house, so I don't have a big sense of urgency regarding Covid. I've forgotten to put my bank robbers bandanna on 4 times when going to Costco. Kind of embarrassing. Fortunately Costco will give you a flimsy light blue paper mask at the Exit door before entering. I just can't remember that Covid is out there trying to get me. I think I hit my head one too many times, and it knocked the hysterical fear gene out of me a long time ago. Either that or I'm just too stupid to believe everything I read.
 
Was not sure on original Vintagent piece , why I put it up here , I had hoped it was hyperbole but just wasn’t completely convinced of that .... thanks for all comments ! .... personally, I am supposed to live in the safest area in the Americas in relation to getting the Covid , but my wife and I are still petrified of the virus !
 
I believe the study in question was a statistical analysis bases on cell phone proximity analysis and was conducted by an economic group. It was not an actual detected infection rate. Interesting acedemic exercise to look at this model and compare to the reality of spread. But not so useful from a public health perspective.
 
I read the paper Sept 15. It was published less than 30 days after the Sturgis event, possibly as little as 15 days (the papers date was simply September 2020).

As one who has published numerous professional papers, I can attest publishing a credible paper in less than 3 months is extremely difficult, and not likely to happen very often. I did it once in my professional career, and that was nearer 3 months.

I suspect, this was a "hit" job for political reasons. The unfortunate thing is so many people take such a "study" as gospel truth.

Slick
 
It wasnt really "a study" IMHO, but a self-described "discussion paper" which attempted to model the potential healthcare cost impacts of the event.

Interesting to me is that the data analysis "show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates [emphasis added] show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows."

So, if the rally increased the case rates in attendees home counties by ~10%, that is a non-trivial number for a single event. A super-spreader gathering.
 
gortnipper said:
It wasnt really "a study" IMHO, but a self-described "discussion paper" which attempted to model the potential healthcare cost impacts of the event.

Interesting to me is that the data analysis "show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade.
Click to expand...

So that is a .6% to .7% gain???


gortnipper said:
Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates [emphasis added] show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows."

So, if the rally increased the case rates in attendees home counties by ~10%, that is a non-trivial number for a single event. A super-spreader gathering.
Click to expand...


The other counties were higher going by your numbers, so that would make no sense that the two are tied together.

Also New Zealand had a 500% increase in cases on Sept 2 compared to July, therefore the Sturgis event caused that as well.

 
Dan Kyle said:
Also New Zealand had a 500% increase in cases on Sept 2 compared to July, therefore the Sturgis event caused that as well.
Click to expand...

There doesn't really appear to be a correlation betwee n Sturgis and NZ increases, and the data doesn't imply that.

NZ had breakout cluster of cases in Aucland associated with a food cold storage facility, and a church associated with the clusters Patient 0. There was no overseas travel identified thru contact tracing. Genome sequencing has identified the strain as associated with AUS and UK variants, not Asian or American ones.
 
Dan Kyle said:
So that is a .6% to .7% gain???
Click to expand...

No, that is an increase of 6-7 CASES per 1000 people.

"the Sturgis event increased COVID-19
cases in Meade County by 6.3 to 6.9 cases per 1,000 population as of September 2nd 2020, a month following the onset of events at the Sturgis Rally. For the state of South Dakota as a whole we find that the Sturgis event increased COVID-19 cases by 3.6 to 3.9 cases per 1,000 population as of September 2nd 2020. This represents an increase of over 35 percent relative to the 9.7 cases per 1,000 population in South Dakota on July 31, 2020 (South Dakota Department of Health 2020)."
 
Dan Kyle said:
The other counties were higher going by your numbers, so that would make no sense that the two are tied together.
Click to expand...

The authors analyzed anonymized cell phone ping data and tracked rally attendees back to their "home" counties.

"counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows."

If you live in a county that had a high number of Sturgis attendees, your home county saw a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not have any residents that attended Sturgis.
 

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