Protect yourself

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Wales begins its new 17 day lockdown, but plans for a drive in cinema in Chester were bogged down after the toilets were fouund to be across the border with Wales and subject to Welsh Covid rules.
The bathroom at Chester Football Club cannot be used due to the new Covid 19 lockfown in Wales.
Anyone caught short would not have been allowed to cross the border. But they have managed to hire some portable toilets so customers " could have a wee without breaking the law"
 

gortnipper

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That is a great joke 220 million died. Sure she was.

Never said inject bleach.

Try again
I think she likely misspoke. Like everyone does, occasionally.

You are right, it was "disinfectant", not bleach, that Trump suggested injecting. I wouldnt think i would want to try that anymore than bleach.

 

gortnipper

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But I still view the fatality rate as fortunately low given our significant lack of meaningful defence against this thing.

In absolute terms we are still looking at very low numbers of infected people, and a 0.5% fatality rate of those who do catch it, the vast majority of those being ‘vulnerable‘ people with pre existing conditions.
Not sure exactly what % you are referring to and where your stats are from?

According to Statista there are ~1.15M deaths worldwide from ~41.49M cases, which represents ~2.74%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/

Another source puts it at ~1.14M deaths worldwide from ~42.5M cases, which represents ~2.7%.

https://ncov2019.live/
 
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Trouble with those stats is that the cases is understated due to asymptomatic cases going undetected. The UK is a prime example, once the numbers started to go too high testing was restricted and even symptomatic cases were ignored, only hospital admissions were tested for a few months until the testing volumes were increased. The real figure for deaths is south of 1%.
 
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Trouble with those stats is that the cases is understated due to asymptomatic cases going undetected. The UK is a prime example, once the numbers started to go too high testing was restricted and even symptomatic cases were ignored, only hospital admissions were tested for a few months until the testing volumes were increased. The real figure for deaths is south of 1%.
Re; "South of 1%"
Don't you mean North of 1%?
There are a lot of unrecorded cases that the authorities haven't acknowledged. . . . . .
 

Fast Eddie

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Even using those distorted global figures, you’ve got something like a 0.05% chance of catching it. And if you do catch it, a 0.2% chance of dying from it. Which I think is a total risk of 0.01% (maths is not my strong point so a stand prepared to be corrected). But as Kommando eludes to, in reality it is much lower than that.

But, of course, that’s just the averages, the problem with averages is they’re ‘wrong’ for everybody!

In reality there is a massive skew, as we already know, the risk is much lower than above for the young, and much higher for the old. Below are the figures for England, which I believe supports the argument that people below 50 and in good health should be allowed to get back to as much (safe) normality as possible. People 50 to 65 should exercise caution. People over 75 should exercise extreme caution.

I was going to say people above 75 should self isolate, but my neighbour VIGOROUSLY corrected me on this recently, she is in her 80s and in good health, and her very strong point was “I don’t have many good years left, I’ll be buggered if I’m going to spend them under house arrest through fear of death which is coming soon anyway”.

41F03136-65F2-41A8-A014-7320FE3571B2.png
 
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Fast Eddie

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Re; "South of 1%"
Don't you mean North of 1%?
There are a lot of unrecorded cases that the authorities haven't acknowledged. . . . . .
No, he means south.

Yes, there are a lot of unrecorded deaths, but there are far, far more unrecorded infections. Therefore, the fatality rate calculation will come out incorrectly high.
 

gortnipper

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Trouble with those stats is that the cases is understated due to asymptomatic cases going undetected. The UK is a prime example, once the numbers started to go too high testing was restricted and even symptomatic cases were ignored, only hospital admissions were tested for a few months until the testing volumes were increased. The real figure for deaths is south of 1%.
I agree that it is hard to understand the actual veracity of the reported data, vis a vis the totals including unreported cases. But, it is the best info we have.

According to Statista there are ~227k deaths in the US from ~8.6M cases, which represents ~2.65%. Pretty much tracking to the global norm.

Unfortunately, at ~8.6M cases, this represents ~20.7% of the global caseload, with 4.3% of the world's population.

The US has performed ~131.1.7M tests of the global ~773.1M tests, or about ~16.95% of the global tests.

However, the US has conducted ~295k tests per 1M population, which is 16th on the list, directly behind the UK and directly above Russia.

The caseload average for all of the countries above the UK is ~38K. The US is the 11th highest cases/million population and the UK ranks 40th.

Most of the countries above the UK on the list are smaller nations, and they average ~169 deaths/million population. If you exclude one outlier (Andorra) then the number falls to ~113 deaths/million. The UK sits at 655 deaths/million (12th highest globally) and the US at 691 deaths/million (10th highest globally).

Now, six of the nine countries with higher deaths/million than the US represent a total of~ 80k deaths, while the other three represent ~225k deaths.

Now, not all countries report testing data, but those represent only ~124k cases globally.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
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gortnipper

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Even using those distorted global figures, you’ve got something like a 0.05% chance of catching it. And if you do catch it, a 0.2% chance of dying from it. Which I think is a total risk of 0.01% (maths is not my strong point so a stand prepared to be corrected). But as Kommando eludes to, in reality it is much lower than that.

But, of course, that’s just the averages, the problem with averages is they’re ‘wrong’ for everybody!

In reality there is a massive skew, as we already know, the risk is much lower than above for the young, and much higher for the old. Below are the figures for England, which I believe supports the argument that people below 50 and in good health should be allowed to get back to as much (safe) normality as possible. People 50 to 65 should exercise caution. People over 75 should exercise extreme caution.

I was going to say people above 75 should self isolate, but my neighbour VIGOROUSLY corrected me on this recently, she is in her 80s and in good health, and her very strong point was “I don’t have many good years left, I’ll be buggered if I’m going to spend them under house arrest through fear of death which is coming soon anyway”.

According to data, in the US, 2.7% of the total population is catching it. .07% of the total population is dying from it.

According to data, in the UK, 1.2% of the total population is catching it. .07% of the total population is dying from it.

The young are key spreaders of Covid, they just dont die from it:

"71% of infected individuals did not infect any of their contacts, while a mere 8% of infected individuals accounted for 60% of new infections."

"we identify high prevalence of infection among children who were contacts of cases around their own age; this finding of enhanced infection risk among individuals exposed to similar-age cases was also apparent among adults. School closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions during the study period may have contributed to reductions in contact among children. Nonetheless, our analyses suggest social interactions among children may be conducive to transmission in this setting."

Think about how young people, and children especially, behave. They are carefree and they play. We know they are germ-mongers...


If you are over 50 and have school age kids or grandkids who go to school, beware. I am 57 and have seven year old twins, so I dont say this lightly.
 
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Fast Eddie

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You’re not far out with the .07% for the U.K. Gortniper, I calculate it at 0.066% so we”ll say we‘re close enough!

Which also makes sense against my 0.05% global figure as the U.K. has it worse than average for sure.
 
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Which also makes sense against my 0.05% global figure as the U.K. has it worse than average for sure.
And countries with older populations are always going to be hit hardest when the virus kills the over 65's. Hence one of the reasons for the 2nd waves not to be as lethal as the first, the care homes are already cleared out of the vulnerable. The UK flu death rate is also down this winter so far for the same reason, covid got to the vulnerable to flu first.
 

Fast Eddie

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If you are over 50 and have school age kids or grandkids who go to school, beware. I am 57 and have seven year old twins, so I dont say this lightly.

Well, I’m 52 and have a 10 and 12 year old at school. I also travel a lot with work. Add all that to being in the U.K. and that puts me at a significantly higher risk than you in NZ. Not sure what that means, but perhaps it’s a little comfort factor for you?

I fully agree that this virus is a bastard and seriously wish it would go away. I just think we are in danger of getting into an unhelpful panic about it.

In the U.K. cancer is responsible for 28% of all deaths. Which, is 165,000 per year, or .25% of the population, or 5 times more than COVID.

In fact, Corona Virus is not even in the top 10 causes of death in the U.K. So there are still at least 10 other things we should genuinely be more concerned about.

All we can do is do what we can do. We are all hand washing, mask wearing, distancing. Personally, I also isolate from family if I’ve been travelling with work until getting tested, so far I’ve had 4 tests (all negative). But I’ve also massively cut down on alcohol, increased exercise and take increased daily dosages of Vit C and D amongst other stuff.

It may or may not be enough, but I’m putting the odds slightly more in my favour.
 
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I usually have 3 young children living with me. Before I had the influenza injections, I used to get influenza which progressed to pneumonia, every year. To me that says that if Covid 19 becomes wide-spread, I will die. The percentages that Nigel has quoted relate to WHEN ? If you lived in a crowded European city, you chances of dying might be different to those if you live in regional Victoria. But I don't want the virus anyway.
My feeling is - 'you aint seen nothing yet'.
Letting the pandemic get out of control is extremely irresponsible. And Trump is a greedy idiot. There is not even one altruistic bone in his body - .You don't have to be Einstein to work out what he is about.
 
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Trump did not say 'inject bleach', he said 'inject disinfectant'. - WHAT IS THAT ?
- You have got to be joking ! - 'Some things are so bad that they are good' ?
I am not a psychiatrist, but I still find Trump mildly interesting. What is more interesting, are the people who believe in him.
 

gortnipper

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Remember its not Ebola or anything close to Ebola.

No, but while Ebola has a much higher death rate among the infected, it is much less transmissible. Ebola is not spread through the air or by water, or in general, by food. There is no evidence of communicability during the incubation period by asymptomatic people who have it.
 

Time Warp

.......back to the 70's.
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What do you think would happen (by Christmas) if the world reopened in full over night.

From 2019.

As mentioned many times, my father was R.A.A.F in WW2 as was my step father (R.N.Z.A.F) .. I'm not sure they served for any political reason, more so for doing what needed to be done and to repel a force that liked chopping peoples heads off in conquest.
(As had happened, rape and murder in China in the 1930's)
I would be very surprised if when asked, why are you here lad, the answer was... In the name of democracy Sir, chocks away.

What government had done back in those days was send young lads over the wall or at the machine guns with no remorse, chosen cities to be bombed with the targets being civilians but that is long ago and the world learned from that.
I still remember a school mate from the 1970's who's father (Army/WW2) had served in Europe and still had then (R.I.P) nightmares of the tanks but assume based on his survival relied on stab, shoot, maim or kill over democracy.
Those millions who died got us a fresh start (once again) that we all but squandered.

My SF told me about Hiroshima from being there.
Lest we Forget, I will never forget.

Maybe some of the bums in world politics should be reminded of the sacrifice of millions.


Government is elected to represent the voice of the electorate, to run ones country in a manner beneficial to that country and its people, to be done with pride and integrity, without bias or treason.... Now think of that and think of the leaders of the world and their political parties.

Then think of the people who vote for the sake of voting.
No one said it was easy or logical.

2020 to 2025 will be interesting to say the least as far as our global direction and stability as a race.
 

gortnipper

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Well, I’m 52 and have a 10 and 12 year old at school. I also travel a lot with work. Add all that to being in the U.K. and that puts me at a significantly higher risk than you in NZ. Not sure what that means, but perhaps it’s a little comfort factor for you?

I fully agree that this virus is a bastard and seriously wish it would go away. I just think we are in danger of getting into an unhelpful panic about it.

In the U.K. cancer is responsible for 28% of all deaths. Which, is 165,000 per year, or .25% of the population, or 5 times more than COVID.

In fact, Corona Virus is not even in the top 10 causes of death in the U.K. So there are still at least 10 other things we should genuinely be more concerned about.

All we can do is do what we can do. We are all hand washing, mask wearing, distancing. Personally, I also isolate from family if I’ve been travelling with work until getting tested, so far I’ve had 4 tests (all negative). But I’ve also massively cut down on alcohol, increased exercise and take increased daily dosages of Vit C and D amongst other stuff.

It may or may not be enough, but I’m putting the odds slightly more in my favour.
The difference is cancer, heart attacks, smoking, car accidents, etc. are not contagious diseases.
 
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