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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Access Norton Pub' started by acotrel, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. acotrel

    acotrel

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2012
    For anyone who is a smoker, now might be a good time to give it up - at least for the time being. When you quit smoking, your lung function improves. Many of the deaths which have happened are probably due to pneumonia rather than the virus itself. As I understand it the pneumonia is caused by an opportunistic bacteria. I recently had influenza which developed into pneumonia. My doctor offered me an injection of 'flu vaccine. I told him I thought you needed the vaccine before you get the 'flu. He told me the vaccine attenuates the virus. I recovered in about two days. But with coronavirus, we don't have that vaccine. With coronavirus, if you smoke, you are probably much more at risk of dying.
     
  2. Tornado

    Tornado VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2017
    Good advice on smoking cessation. Flu vaccine is either heat-killed virus or weakened virus, both of which trigger an immune response. Developing immunity requires about 2 weeks post innoculation in humans (as for most mammals). Immunity can last for years/decades to the specific flu type the vaccine was for. There will be little to no immediate benefit for an already infected person, but will protect following the two weeks from future infections.
     
  3. grandpaul

    grandpaul VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    It's ALWAYS a good time to quit smoking, this is just a BETTER time!
     
  4. Eljahara

    Eljahara VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2018
    All true.
    This is what the U.K. Govt are using as their protocol for so called herd immunity, but it is bullshit. The herd immunity protocol works with VACCINATIONS where you can CONTROL who receives the immunisation so you can target your 60% of the population in order to protect the more vulnerable 40%. But... with a virus transmission it is not possible to hit the target 60% as the transmission is not controlled so the wrong 60% might be infected and this hits the vulnerable groups badly.
     
    trident sam and gortnipper like this.
  5. Tornado

    Tornado VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2017
    Herd immunity is a natural consequence that occurs following a wave of infectious disease spread. Typically you need more than 85-95% exposure in a population to achieve reasonable protection for at risk individuals. Look at recent increases in Measles cases world wide as communities let the immunization rates drop below that level. Herd immunity is only possible for subsequent rounds of spread, not for emergence of a novel infection where no pre-existing immunity exists. No one is saying we should just let nearly everyone become exposed so that we then have herd immunity. That is irresponsible and will have dire consequences as healthcare will not be able to cope. We need to spread out the rate of new cass appearing, to "flatten the curve" and prioritize the severe cases. Self-isolation at home is the best guidance for all those not having more serious issues.
     
    NPeteN likes this.
  6. Tornado

    Tornado VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2017
    More in the UK's "Herd Immunity" thing:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...ndemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/

    “People have misinterpreted the phrase herd immunity as meaning that we’re going to have an epidemic to get people infected,” says Graham Medley at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Medley chairs a group of scientists who model the spread of infectious diseases and advise the government on pandemic responses. He says that the actual goal is the same as that of other countries: flatten the curve by staggering the onset of infections. As a consequence, the nation may achieve herd immunity; it’s a side effect, not an aim. Indeed, yesterday, U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock stated, “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy.” The government’s actual coronavirus action plan, available online, doesn’t mention herd immunity at all. “The messaging has been really confusing, and I think that was really unfortunate,” says Petra Klepac, who is also an infectious-disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “It’s been a case of how not to communicate during an outbreak,” says Devi Sridhar, a public-health specialist at the University of Edinburgh.
     
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  7. Eljahara

    Eljahara VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2018
    That’s true if considering an infection without control which runs through a population. If you are trying to control an infection you do so via a vaccination programme , as we do annually with the flu jab - unfortunately, as you have posted, The Govt has communicated their message badly and with our 24 hour news feed other scientists are predicting a significant number of deaths (250 000) with the mitigation protocol they have adopted.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302

    A very difficult situation for anyone to deal with but we are still getting mixed messages - don’t socialise, don’t go to the pub, club, theatre, no unnecessary travel but keep schools open - even the smallest school would pack out a pub and most high school children get to school via public transport thereby mixing with adults and spreading any infection
     
    gortnipper likes this.
  8. oldmikew

    oldmikew

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2015
    The irony of all this to me is that despite all the hoo haw about taking control back of our borders, the Govt failed miserably to take any decisive action when corona was in its infancy here.
     
  9. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Surely ‘flattening the peak’ doesn’t mean only delaying?

    Surely it means ‘allowing’ some cases now, and delaying some for later, to ease the burden?

    If you only delay, you haven’t flattened the peak, you’ve just delayed it.

    Maybe that’s one of the reasons behind the UKs staged response, try and allow a relatively controlled, balanced, levelled, infection rate?
     
  10. gortnipper

    gortnipper VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    It flattens the peak if time is on the x-axis, say infections per month.

    It potentially doesnt reduce the total number of cases.
     
  11. trident sam

    trident sam

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2012
    The virus will spread no doubt, whatever is done. You will either survive or you won't . I personally don't worry about it at all as there is next to nothing I can do about it. I restrict myself from large gatherings and that's it.
    Hi Ho Silver -----
     
  12. gortnipper

    gortnipper VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Yeah, but if the healthcare system has finite resources, you want the spike of cases as flat as possible so the system remains viable.
     
  13. trident sam

    trident sam

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2012
    The Health system would not remain viable for the amount of people involved, it would be impossible. That is also discounting the amount of Health Service employees infected as well.
    My opinion for all it's worth is the virus is extremely dangerous to elderly/at risk (respiratory problems) but no real problem for healthy people.
    I am in the "respiratory problem " sector myself, it's my own fault I smoked heavily for 45 years and my job as a Fireman all conspire against me. However I still take the attitude of 'what will be will be.
     
  14. Tornado

    Tornado VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2017
    Virus spread is analogous to a forest fire as it shares same basic mathematical functions of growth if virtually unlimited fuel/victims are involved. In a forest fire not all trees are consumed. Some escape by chance, some by better fire resistance characteristics. No fire wipes out an entire forest above a certain size. In wild animal populations viruses also do not completely wipe them out. If we did nothing, continue to do regular things, spread would exponentially grow until almost all susceptible people were exposed. By changing our behaviours to reduce contacts and improve hygiene we are breaking the natural chain of transmission, reducing rate of growth/spread.
    China is now about three months into it and the daily new cases are falling steeply. They broken the transmission to a manageable level. Did this by ramping up isolation rules and by extensive testing to quickly identify new cases.
    We need to be overracting earlier to have a bigger impact on numbers weeks from now.
     
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  15. acotrel

    acotrel

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2012
    When smokers give up smoking, their lung function usually improves, even from day one. Any improvement in lung function can improve your chances of survival. One of the things I really noticed when I was in Southern Europe was the number of people who were smoking in restaurants and pubs. In Australia, we don't do that. It would be interesting to know how many of those deaths in Italy involved pneumonia. I am fairly certain that the virus is not a killer, it is more likely to be the opportunistic bacteria. My father died at age 63 from a lung infection. He was a heavy smoker for about 45 years. My sister was a nurse and had told him she treated guys like him, and when they vomit the antibiotics they die. And that is what happened to him. When he vomited the antibiotics, he knew the score. He had been an inveterate gambler and told me he had found religion - an each-way bet. He drowned in his sleep.
     
  16. Eljahara

    Eljahara VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2018
    Here is how public minded citizens are responding...
    I called in to my local supermarket on my way home from work - a rather large branch of Sainsbury’s- to pick up a couple of things for our evening meal
    The fruit and veg aisles were empty, the fresh meat aisles were empty, the butchers and fishmongers counters were closed as they had no stock left, no eggs, no bread, no tinned goods etc.. it was as if the delivery companies were on strike. So if you need to go to work, you are unable to buy a significant number of foodstuff.
    What makes you think people will follow advice from Govt to look after each other and be good citizens?
     
  17. Tornado

    Tornado VIP MEMBER

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2017
    Here's a short vid on how the polymerase chain reaction PCR process works. This is the basis for the Cornavirus testing we are hearing so much about. The one caveat is it is being used to ultimately detect the virus RNA, not DNA. To achieve this, the RNA molecule(s) in the original smaple need to be converted/copied to DNA by a standard lab procedure, then run through PCR.



    Note how a single molecule of DNA can be amplified to billions within 30 or so cycles of this process. We can then detect using a number of methods the presence of that huge number much more reliably than the original very low or even single molecule in the sample.
     
  18. EstuaryBoy

    EstuaryBoy

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2020
    They should lock up the trolleys and let them buy only what they can carry... Local supermarket was devoid of any tinned soup, beans meat and rice by 10am. However, on returning home a neighbour had left a note regarding a self help group for our road. So a bit of community spirit out there...
     
  19. acotrel

    acotrel

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2012

    I don't have any worries about what people in Australia will do - collectivism is the most fundamental of Australian values. We have had people doing panic buying, but media reporting makes that worse. In the end collectivism is about unity. If you are Australian and travel in Europe and get in a corner - if there are other Australians there, you are never one-out on your lonesome.
     
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  20. acotrel

    acotrel

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2012
    Sam, My father was a WW2 soldier. He once said to me 'Americans die easily' - I know that sounds terrible, but what he was talking about was acceptance. With Australians, our guys will jack-up if what they are asked to do is mission impossible. But when we fight, it is usually to the last man. Giving up smoking is probably a horrible experience, but when my father was dying in hospital, he did not even notice that he did not have cigarettes. The one thing he had to have was his $5 bet on the horses, each week.
     

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